Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles

In this paper we analyse to what extent movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany.We proceed in several steps:As a starting point we use a standard real business cycle model for the German economy and introduce energy as an additional factor in the production function. As in Kim/Loungani (1992) our finding is that oil price shocks increase the volatility of output but only to a limited extent.We therefore continue by using a real business cycle model for a small open economy and again include energy use in the production function (de Miguel et al. 2003).But compared to our previous model we could only find an additional increase in volatility of output under certain conditions. Subsequently,we use these models to analyse whether the impact of oil price movements has changed over time by splitting our data set into two subsamples: the first from 1970 to 1986 and the second from 1987 to 2002.The main results suggest that the reduced importance of energy for industrial production substantially decreases the vulnerability of the German economy with regard to oil price shocks.Oil prices, business cycle, small open economy

Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?

Recent oil price shocks have relatively small effects on real economic activity and inflation compared to the experiences of the seventies and the early eighties. In this paper we analyse possible reasons for these phenomena using the example of the German economy. At first, by estimating a VAR-model and calculating impulse responses to an oil price shock it is confirmed that the macroeconomic effects have become much smaller. Moreover, our simulations show that oil price hikes are more closely related to global economic activity since the early nineties.Then, to get a deeper understanding of the structural changes which are responsible for these results we utilize a new Keynesian open economy model. It becomes obvious that the small effects of the recent oil price shocks on the German economy can be explained by a combination of a reduced energy cost share and good luck in terms of a strong growing global economy. Hence, if global economic growth decreases, pure oil price shocks may still have substantial effects on the German economy, even if the energy pricevulnerability has been reduced.These results should be valid also for other oil importing countries, at least from a qualitative point of view.Oil prices, new Keynesian open economy model

Characterizing a Meta-CDN

CDNs have reshaped the Internet architecture at large. They operate (globally) distributed networks of servers to reduce latencies as well as to increase availability for content and to handle large traffic bursts. Traditionally, content providers were mostly limited to a single CDN operator. However, in recent years, more and more content providers employ multiple CDNs to serve the same content and provide the same services. Thus, switching between CDNs, which can be beneficial to reduce costs or to select CDNs by optimal performance in different geographic regions or to overcome CDN-specific outages, becomes an important task. Services that tackle this task emerged, also known as CDN broker, Multi-CDN selectors, or Meta-CDNs. Despite their existence, little is known about Meta-CDN operation in the wild. In this paper, we thus shed light on this topic by dissecting a major Meta-CDN. Our analysis provides insights into its infrastructure, its operation in practice, and its usage by Internet sites. We leverage PlanetLab and Ripe Atlas as distributed infrastructures to study how a Meta-CDN impacts the web latency

Makna Shajarah Dalam Alqur’an Qs. Al-Baqarah: 35 (Studi Komparatif Tafsir Al-Tabari Dan Hamka)

Sebab diturunkannya Nabi Adam ke bumi, dikalangan mufasir masih menjadi pertanyaan, dan diantara pertanyaan yang muncul, benarkah Adam melakukan salah? lupa? ataukah memang rencana besar Tuhan kepada Adam agar Adam menjadi manusia yang sempurna. Selain itu, yang menjadi perbincangan mufasir adalah mengenai pohon yang didekati oleh Nabi Adam. Apakah pohon tersebut hanya merupakan sifat, pohon layaknya di dunia, ataukah hanya Tuhan yang mengerti mengenai makna pohon tersebut? Selanjutnya, skripsi ini membahas penafsiran al-Tabari dan Hamka dalam menafsirkan shajarah QS. al-Baqarah:35, sekaligus menjelaskan metode yang digunakan dalam menafsirkan ayat tersebut. Meski dikalangan mufasir, menyebutkan bahwa bukan merupakan hal yang penting mengetahui pohon tersebut, tetapi setidaknya akan memberikan wahana baru bagi penulis ataupun pembaca yang dalam kaitannya dengan pemaknaan shajarah dalam QS. al-Baqarah:35. Kedua mufasir tersebut, mempunyai karakteristik yang berbeda, selain berbeda dalam segi corak, juga berbeda dalam produk penafsirannya, yang tentunya dipengaruhi oleh kondisi sosial saat itu, dan masalah zaman menjadi faktor utama yang menyebabkan produk tafsir tersebut berubah. Hamka dan Al-Tabari mempunyai kesamaan dalam memberikan penjelasan mengani ayat shajarah tersebut, yakni sama-sama tidak menganggap penting. Hanya saja, bedanya jika Hamka sejak awal memang tidak menafsirakan shajarah tersebut, sedangkan Al-T{abari sedikit menjelaskan mengenai pohon tersebut sesuai kondisi Arab. Meski pada akhirnya tidak menganggap penting

Effectiveness of the clinical decision support tool ESR eGUIDE for teaching medical students the appropriate selection of imaging tests: randomized cross-over evaluation

Objectives: To evaluate ESR eGUIDE-the European Society of Radiology (ESR) e-Learning tool for appropriate use of diagnostic imaging modalities-for learning purposes in different clinical scenarios. Methods: This anonymized evaluation was performed after approval of ESR Education on Demand leadership. Forty clinical scenarios were developed in which at least one imaging modality was clinically most appropriate, and the scenarios were divided into sets 1 and 2. These sets were provided to medical students randomly assigned to group A or B to select the most appropriate imaging test for each scenario. Statistical comparisons were made within and across groups. Results: Overall, 40 medical students participated, and 31 medical students (78%) answered both sets. The number of correctly chosen imaging methods per set in these 31 paired samples was significantly higher when answered with versus without use of ESR eGUIDE (13.7 ± 2.6 questions vs. 12.1 ± 3.2, p = 0.012). Among the students in group A, who first answered set 1 without ESR eGUIDE (11.1 ± 3.2), there was significant improvement when set 2 was answered with ESR eGUIDE (14.3 ± 2.5, p = 0.013). The number of correct answers in group B did not drop when set 2 was answered without ESR eGUIDE (12.4 ± 2.6) after having answered set 1 first with ESR eGUIDE (13.0 ± 2.7, p = 0.66). Conclusion: The clinical decision support tool ESR eGUIDE is suitable for training medical students in choosing the best radiological imaging modality in typical scenarios, and its use in teaching radiology can thus be recommended. Key points: • ESR eGUIDE improved the number of appropriately selected imaging modalities among medical students. • This improvement was also seen in the group of students which first selected imaging tests without ESR eGUIDE. • In the student group which used ESR eGUIDE first, appropriate selection remained stable even without the teaching tool

Optical two-mode squeezed interferometer for enhanced chip-integrated quantum-metrology

In this work we analyze the possibility to use two-mode squeezed light to improve the performance of existing sensor technology with the focus on its miniaturization. Based on a general four-wave mixing Hamiltonian, we formulate simple linearized equations that describe the FWM process below threshold and can be used to analyze the squeezing quality between the generated optical signal and idler modes. For a possible realization, we focus on the chip-integrated generation using micro-ringresonators and the impact of the design and the pump light on the squeezing quality is shown with the derived equations. With this we analyze the usage in quantrum metrology and analyze the application of two-mode squeezed light in a Mach-Zehnder interferometer and for a deeper understanding and motivation also in the application of a Sagnac-interferometer. Due to the impact of losses in these use cases, we show that the main usage is for small and compact devices, which can lead to a quantum improvement up to a factor of ten in comparison of using only classical light. This enables the use of small quantum-enhanced sensors with a comparable performance to larger classical sensors

The Impact of Prepartum Platelet Count on Postpartum Blood Loss and Its Association with Coagulation Factor XIII Activity

BACKGROUND Postpartum hemorrhage is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Contradictory information exists regarding the relevance of prepartum platelet count on postpartum hemorrhage. We have shown prepartum coagulation factor XIII to be associated with postpartum blood loss; however, little is known about the association of platelet count with factor XIII activity. Our objectives were, first, to evaluate the impact of prepartum platelet count on measured postpartum blood loss in the context of prepartum measurements of coagulation factors I, II, and XIII and, second, to evaluate the association of platelet count with coagulation factor XIII, both pre- and postpartum. MATERIAL AND METHODS This is a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study (PPH 1,300 study) which analyzed the impact of prepartum blood coagulation factors on postpartum blood loss in 1,300 women. Blood loss was quantified using a validated technique. The impact of prepartum platelet count on measured blood loss was assessed by continuous outcome logistic regression; the association of platelet count with factor XIII activity by Spearman rank correlation. RESULTS Prepartum platelet count was significantly associated with measured postpartum blood loss: every one unit (G/L) increase in prepartum thrombocytes was associated with an odds ratio of 1.002 (95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.004, p = 0.005) to keep blood loss below any given cut-off level. This means that the probability of postpartum hemorrhage decreases with increasing prepartum platelet levels. Moreover, a significant association of platelet count with factor XIII activity was shown (Spearman rank correlation coefficient for prepartum values 0.228, p < 0.001, and for postpartum values 0.293, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION The significant association of prepartum platelet count and postpartum blood loss as well as the association of platelet count with blood coagulation factor XIII activity support the likely role of platelets in preventing postpartum hemorrhage and support the new guidelines for the treatment of postpartum hemorrhage in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, which calls for optimizing platelet counts peripartally in case of postpartum hemorrhage. A possible effect of platelets on the level of circulating factor XIII cannot be ruled out and should prompt further investigation

Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland zur Jahreswende 2010/2011 - Feste Konjunktur in unsicherem Umfeld

Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich in einem kräftigen Aufschwung. Das BIP ist 2010 um 3,6% gewachsen – die höchste Rate seit der Wiedervereinigung. Wesentliche Impulse kamen aus dem Ausland, da sich an den dramatischen Einbruch des Welthandels im Jahr 2009 eine Phase seiner Normalisierung anschloss. Diese Impulse übertrugen sich auf die Inlandsnachfrage. Bei verbesserten Absatzaussichten nahm die Investitionsneigung der Unternehmen zu, und die günstigen Arbeitsmarktperspektiven stärkten den privaten Konsum. Gefördert wurde all dies durch das historisch niedrige Zinsniveau. Dieses trug dazu bei, dass die Wohnungsbauinvestitionen kräftig ausgeweitet wurden. Allerdings hat das Aktivitätsniveau vielfach noch nicht den Stand vor Ausbruch der Finanzkrise erreicht. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Situation am Arbeitsmarkt überraschend günstig dar. Die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen liegt bereits um mehr als 300 000 über dem Höchststand vor der Finanzkrise und die Zahl der registrierten Arbeitslosen ist auf den niedrigsten Stand seit 1992 gesunken. Ein Schatten auf den Aufschwung wirft der Preisanstieg: Im Februar betrug die Inflationsrate 2,0%, worin sich in erster Linie der Anstieg der Rohstoffpreise bemerkbar machte. Jedoch ist inzwischen auch ein Anziehen der Kerninflation festzustellen. So wie die niedrigen Zinsen der EZB derzeit den Aufschwung unterstützen, so begünstigt die expansive Geldpolitik die Teuerung.[...] Projektion der mittelfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2015Konjunktur; wirtschaftliche Entwicklung; Inland